The ruling party in Ethiopia has strong historical connection with famine: TPLF was born out of the wombs of the 1974 famine. The military wing of this Front thrived on the back of the 1984 famine when its operatives hijacked some 95 percent of the relief money to buy bombs and ammunitions. And since coming to power in 1991, Meles has been riding on a series of famines, including the major ones in 2000, 2008 and currently in 2011. It is as if TPLF/EPRDF is the government of famine, by famine, for famine.

 By Wondemhunegn Ezezew

The on going debate on the relevance of the “developmental state” for Ethiopia has been really encouraging. Though I was intrigued by Prof.Messay’s emphasis on the role of the elite in shaping the historical courses of their respective countries, I did not, however, like the authoritarian flavour that he wished to generously lavish upon them. Why would one choose to hold onto the authoritarian road when we could follow the democratic one?

By Yared Haile-Meskel

The last three months had thrown the proverbial spanner into the gears of the prediction and security industry.  The political analysts, strategic planners, the intelligent officers, the 5 stars national security advisors as well as the fortune tellers failed to warn Ben Ali and Mubarak about the impending danger and the rest of us to bet on rising oil price.

The masterminds behind prediction models, the strategic planners and the security officials who had been on fat salary to predict the future missed the big events of the North-Africa leaving their paymasters totally wrong-footed.

By Wondemhunegn Ezezew

In theory, devaluation promotes exports and aggregate economic activity through the famous “multiplier effect.” However, currency devaluation may not produce the desired outcomes for several reasons:

First, the Marshall-Learner (ML) condition may not hold in the short run. The ML condition is a theoretical viewpoint that links exchange rate fluctuations and trade performance from the perspective of elasticity. According to this theory, ceteris paribus, a country will improve its current account deficit by devaluing its currency provided that the sum (in absolute value) of the elasticity of demand for its exports and imports is greater than one. But most empirical results show that short run elasticities are smaller than their long run counterparts and countries may not achieve increased employment, investment and output following devaluation.